Abstracts for the 6th International GAME Conf.

3-5 December 2004

Kyoto Japan

ENSO-Monsoon Relationship in a 1000-yr MRI-CGCM Simulation

A. Kitoh (1)

The interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its close relation with ENSO is known (drought conditions over India accompany warm ENSO events and vice versa), but recent observation suggests a weakening of this ENSO-monsoon relationship and a possible link to global warming is suggested. Here we analyze ENSO-monsoon relationship in a 1000-year control simulation of the MRI coupled GCM (MRI-CGCM2.2, T42L30). An overall correlation between the JJA Nino3.4 SST and the JJA Indian monsoon rainfall is -0.39 with reasonable circulation characteristics associated with model ENSO. Simulated ENSO-monsoon relationship reveals long-term variations from -0.71 to +0.07 in moving 31-year windows. The poor-correlation periods coincide with periods when the Indian monsoon rainfall is above the long-term average, SST is warmer over the eastern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific, and convection center is located more westward. It is suggested that the magnitude of mean monsoon rainfall is more important than that of Nino3.4 SST on ENSO-monsoon relationship.

Submittal Information

Name : Date :
    Akio Kitoh
    23-Jul-04-17:21:55
Organization : Theme :
    Meteorological Research Institute
    Theme 4
Address : Presentation :
    1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052
    Poster or oral
Country : Abstract ID :
    Japan
    T4AK23Jul04172155
Phone : Fax :
    81-29-853-8594
    81-29-855-2552
E-mail :
    kitoh@mri-jma.go.jp