Pattern of Multiyear Wet and Dry Cycles of Monsoon Rainfall over Northeastern Thailand Part II:Annual Rainfall Forecasting Application.
Sanguan Patamatamkul (1)
(1) Department of Civil Engineering, Khon Kaen University
Annual rainfall data of 16 synoptic stations over northeastern Thailand were previously analyzed to investigate the pattern of their wet and dry cycles. It was found that the cycles of wet and dry periods followed the sunspot’s cycle of 11 years with multiplication factors of one, one point five and two. These data were further analyzed for annual rainfall forecasting purpose. Firstly, the wet and dry periods of the rainfall sequence were separated into two sequences of wet period and dry period, respectively, for each station. Then each sequence was investigated independently. Secondly, the annual rainfall values were transformed by the cube root transformation and formed new sequence. This transformation process was undertaken so that the transformed values will be approximately normal distributed. Then these new sequences were further analyzed for the dependency of the sequences. It was found that the autoregressive model could satisfactorily represent the sequences dependency. The obtained autoregressive equations were employed to forecast the 2004 annual rainfall value. The accuracy of the forecasted annual rainfall in yet to be verified and the results of the study will be presented in Part III of this series of paper which will extend the rainfall forecasting application into shorter time periods such as seasonal and monthly time periods
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Sanguan Patamatamkul
06-Aug-04-15:42:46
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Department of Civil Engineering, Khon Kaen University
Theme 5
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Department of Civil Engineering, Khon Kaen University,Khon Kaen 40002