Abstracts for the 6th International GAME Conf.

3-5 December 2004

Kyoto Japan

Climate impact on Seasonal patterns of Diarrheal Diseases in Tropical area

Akari Teshima (1), Michio Yamada (2), Taiichi Hayashi (1), Yukiko Wagatsuma (4), Toru Terao (5)

Associated with the global warming, the climate impact on tropical infectious diseases is getting more attention recently. For example, malaria, cholera and dengue fever in tropical area in Asia and Africa are considered to prevail seriously in the middle latitude countries. Statistical surveys have been made for the effect of the climate on the epidemic diseases, but not so much has been clarified on the relation between the variations of meteorological elements and of the number of patients. In this paper, we apply EOF analysis method to time series of diarrhea patients and meteorological elements in Bangladesh, to understand effects of the meteorological variation to the prevalence of the diarrhea disease. The seasonal variation of the diarrhea patients shows two peaks in the pre-monsoon (March and April) and at the end of the monsoon (September and October). The EOF analysis of the time series of patients and meteorological elements averaged every two weeks for 21 years from 1981 to 2001, shows that in the dominating component, the anomaly of the number of the diarrhea patients has different signs for the periods before and after June, corresponding to the two peaks of the averaged number of the patients. Higher maximum temperature and more sunshine in the pre-monsoon period are found to have a tendency to enhance the first peak of the diarrheal occurrence. We will also report the result for the different types of diarrhea as V.Cholera, Rota and Etec.

Submittal Information

Name : Date :
    Akari Teshima
    09-Aug-04-09:31:13
Organization : Theme :
    DPRI, Kyoto Univ.
    Theme 6
Address : Presentation :
    DPRI, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji 611-0011, JAPAN
    Poster or oral
Country : Abstract ID :
    Japan
    T6AT09Aug04093113
Phone : Fax :
    +81-0774-38-4309
    +81-0774-38-4180
E-mail :
    akanekd6@hotmail.com